Despite slight pressure on national house prices, the property market remains resilient.
According to the latest data from the Land Registry UK House Price Index (1), as of September 2025, national property prices have fallen by 0.6% compared to the previous month, and risen by 2.6% compared to the previous year.
This follows a cooling of the property market in recent months, as sellers continue to contend with increased interest rates, seasonal end-of-year sluggishness, and buyer uncertainty in the shadow of the looming Autumn Budget.
However, despite the widely reported stall in monthly house price growth, it is important to consider this figure in the context of a year-on-year 2.6% increase in house prices.
Despite the pessimistic tone that is often presented in market reporting, the UK property market remains impressively resilient in the face of significant challenges.
The UK housing market has been significantly impacted by the effects of a largely stagnant economy in recent months.
Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in the three months to September, following growth of 0.2% in August 2025 (2), while the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to October, down from 3.8% in September, which was in line with expectations (The Office for National Statistics – ONS).
Although the news of the reduction of CPI growth was welcome news, the Bank of England has maintained its cautious approach to lowering interest rates and chose to hold its base rate at 4% at its November meeting.
With the Base Rate holding at 4%, it’s unlikely that homeowners can expect their mortgage rates to fall significantly in the near future.
Further pain could come from the upcoming November Budget. Although the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has recently announced that a rise in Income Tax will not be included in the Budget, a freeze on Income Tax thresholds and changes to property taxation are all possible.
Landlords and home buyers in particular will be looking for possible changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), as changes to either or both of these duties could add significant costs to property transactions.
However, despite the uncertainty of the upcoming market, key market performance indices have shown positive, if muted, trends in recent months.
Data from various sources, including ONS, Halifax and Nationwide, show broadly flat house price growth during September and October 2025, but also a modest annual house price growth since 2024.
While house prices are one indicator of property market performance, other factors such as property demand and the overall number of transactions can help to give a clearer picture.
According to HMRC (4), the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in September 2025 is 95,980, 4% higher than September 2024 and 1% higher than August 2025.
However, the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK non-residential transactions in September 2025 is 9,910, 4% lower than September 2024 and marginally lower (less than 1%) than August 2025.
This fall in non-residential transactions is similar to an on-going slowdown in commercial property sales.
Conversely, the continued increase in residential property sales demonstrates what buyers continue to engage with the makert, even if somewhat cautiously.
In terms of buyer demand, data from RICS suggests that while property demand continues to be depressed in Southern regions, areas like Wales and the North West continue to attract strong enquiries from potential buyers.
The indication here is that now more than ever, location is a key factor in determining the health of the UK property market.
Regional differences continue to dominate the UK property market, with Northern areas still pulling ahead in terms of buyer demand and house price growth.
The North West, in particular, has maintained its position as a powerhouse for property sales.
According to ONS (6), the provisional average house price in Manchester in September 2025 was £254,000. This was higher than the average of £245,000 in September 2024 (revised), a 3.5% rise.
Across the North West, the average house price in September 2025 was £215,000, which was 3.3% more than a year earlier (£208,000).
Although the growth in the UK property market has been slow, buyer activity has remained muted, but steady throughout the year.
As 2025 enters its final months, all eyes will be on Rachel Reeves’s Autumn Budget to set the tone for next year.
Depending on what the Chancellor decides, there could be a cool-down in the market if buyers feel the need to reevaluate their finances before making a purchase, following increases in SDLT.
Alternatively, it has been speculated that stamp duty could be scrapped on homes under £500,000 or that rules on payments of Stamp Duty could be changed to allow for payments to be made over time, rather than upfront.
These policies could make it easier to purchase property under £500,000, and potentially create greater fluidity across the market.
The market could also experience a repeat of the rush to complete transactions before new rules come into effect, or further movement from landlords looking to exit the rental space.
With so much that could change in the Autumn Budget, it’s hard to tell what 2026 will look like, except to say that the property market will need to react quickly, whatever happens.
Whether you are thinking of selling or simply want an accurate assessment of your home’s true value ahead of the Budget, Edward Mellor Estate Agents are on hand to provide you with the best local property advice.
Our expert valuers will consider every aspect of what makes your home unique, while providing professional marketing advice and potential strategies for selling your property.
As experts in home sales for over 40 years, we’ll further guide you through every step of your property journey.
For further information, simply book a free, zero-obligation property valuation with us today.
(1) – Land Registry UK House Price Index
(2) – Data from ONS / Dataloft by Price Hubble
(3) – BBC News: Reeves backs away from income tax rates rise after improved economic forecasts
(4) – HMRC – UK monthly property transactions commentary
(5) – RICS UK Residential Market Survey October 2025
(6) – ONS – Housing prices in Manchester
